Assassination Forecasts and Warning Behaviors of Targeted Violence
In the aftermath of the political murders in Minnesota, I discuss my previous forecasts on assassinations and political violence in the U.S., and some warning behaviors of attack
From this newsletter's first edition, my 2023 Global Risk & Intelligence Forecast that was published in February 2023:
Assassination Attempt on a National-Level U.S. Politician
I assess that this year in the U.S. there will be an assassination attempt against a national-level, elected U.S. politician. As many analysts and pundits have observed, America's current level of partisanship and divisiveness is unprecedented in recent history (the years leading up to the U.S. Civil War, the Civil War itself, and the election of 1876 are solid competitors). The number of kidnapping and assassination plots and communicated threats against elected officials have increased dramatically over the past several years....The trend in actual attack planning, security breaches, threatening confrontations, and attacks against public figures--not all of which are politically motivated--is even more alarming.
I summarized the assassinations of and attacks on nine local, state, and federal politicians and a federal judge, and their family members. And in a newsletter edition several months later, I wrote about "Recent Threats Against U.S. Presidents: Pathway to Violence & Warning Behaviors". And last July after the first known assassination attempt on presidential candidate Donald Trump, I wrote that America's divisions are "a festering, simmering problem that has been boiling over for the past 15 years" and "Right now I don't see America's situation getting better."
The pathway to violence explains the various steps a perpetrator takes to commit targeted violence, as contrary to popular opinion and cliche, people do not simply "snap" to carry out this type of violence. Other warning behaviors can include:
Access to weapons.
"Identification", which can manifest as a close association or obsession with weapons and other military or law enforcement paraphernalia, or identifying with previous attackers or assassins.
Concerning communications to a third party (also referred to as "leakage"). A casual comment to a colleague about not being upset if another colleague dies is an example, and statistically should be more concerning than a direct threat to the disliked colleague.
Fixation (a pathological preoccupation with a person or a cause, accompanied by a deterioration in social and or occupational life).
Intimate partner violence. In a U.S. Secret Service study on the 173 mass attacks (three or more people harmed) in public spaces committed by 180 attackers over a five-year period (a total of 1,747 people harmed), 41% of the attackers had a history of engaging in at least one incident of domestic violence. In an FBI study on the pre-attack behaviors of 63 active shooters (not all active shooters are mass attackers), 16% had engaged in intimate partner violence—still a significant portion.
Grievance. A grievance can be thought of as the cause of an attacker's distress or resentment, and it can result from personal (e.g., bullying, feuds with neighbors, problems with family members), workplace, or domestic experiences. It is a perception of having been wronged or treated unfairly or inappropriately, and can result in an overwhelming desire to seek satisfaction and or revenge. Half of the mass attackers in the aforementioned Secret Service study and 80% of active shooters in the FBI study had known grievances. In both studies, these grievances were most often related to personal factors (as opposed to workplace or domestic experiences).
Extreme or hate-based beliefs. In the aforementioned Secret Service study, extreme or hate-based beliefs played a prominent role in the motivation of 18% of the attackers. Extreme or hate-based beliefs can precede a personal grievance. But in the FBI study of 63 active shooters, only 7% had a grievance driven by broad considerations such as ideology or hatred of a group. Usually, elected officials are not the targets of ideological-based violence. For example, this week a Virginia man pleaded guilty to his 2024 pursuit and shooting of two Latino men because of his “anger at illegal immigration.”
I am confident that the suspect accused of the murder and attempted murder of the politicians and spouses in Minnesota on Saturday June 14 exhibited some concerning behaviors noticed by his friends, family, and colleagues prior to his alleged attacks (The suspect reportedly also had a hit list of 45 targets, including people who are not politicians).
As with previous attacks and attempted attacks on elected politicians, including the January 6, 2021 insurrection, politicians subsequently gave statements about the need to increase security funding for elected officials. Naturally, there will never be enough funds to adequately protect all local, state, or federal officials. But the approaches and attacks against elected officials will almost certainly continue. A week after the Minnesota shootings, a man trespassed at the home of the Memphis, Tennessee mayor and has been charged with attempted kidnapping and stalking. And a man tried to run an Ohio congressman off the road (as I have mentioned in several articles and posts including my 2023 Global Risk & Intelligence Forecast, VIPs are most vulnerable in and around their vehicles). In April a man firebombed the home of the Pennsylvania Governor.
In the absence of unlimited security funding, elected (and appointed) officials will need to exercise vigilance; complacency will be one of their worst vulnerabilities. Simply varying routines and being hyper vigilant in and around their vehicles will mitigate (not eliminate) against threats.
Planned editions of this publication, in no particular order:
Insights on the Iran situation, based on my experience leading and co-leading highly sensitive Iran projects as an intelligence officer (the paywalled version will be more detailed and thorough);
"Global Risk and Gerontocracies", where I'll delve into the potentially imminent health risks of aging leaders, including Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, Ali Khamenei, and members of the U.S. Congress;
Power grid vulnerabilities; and
Russian foreign malign influence and counterintelligence threat.